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Forex trading: a pressure cooker

Published January 21, 2008

Even with a driven personality, a trader's career life span tends to be short because of the high-stress work, reports QUAH CHIN CHIN

HAVING a career in foreign exchange (forex) trading often comes at a price, both literally and figuratively. It is exciting and lucrative - according to a survey last September by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), trade on global currency markets is worth more than US$3.2 trillion daily. This is approximately equal to the annual economic output of Germany, the world's third-largest economy.

Closer to home, Singapore is the world's fifth largest forex centre, with an annual daily turnover of US$231 billion.
Despite the whopping figures, forex trading is often fraught with risks and pressure. In this article, we give you a run-through on the important aspects for a career in forex trading.

An eye on the market
'Forex traders can either work in a bank or in a company,' says Gary Lai, front office manager of recruitment firm Robert Walters. 'For most of these corporations, the traders are there for hedging purposes, but in banks, there is a group of proprietary traders who trade for profits for the bank.'
'The long-term prospects are not good, given that, in the near future, the world is heading towards a few currencies only. First, the euro. And in the Americas, the US$ is a de facto single currency, while Asia is thinking about having one currency too. So the volatility has dropped a lot, making trading harder.'
- a forex trader

The traders make money for their institutions by buying currency and selling it later at a higher price or, if they anticipate that the market is heading down, by selling at a high price first and buying back at a lower price later.
A forex trader working at a bank in Singapore describes the job as 'straightforward'. 'The person speculates which way the currency will move, much like equity traders. However, the forex market is much bigger,' he says. 'For example, if you expect the US dollar to appreciate against the Japanese yen, then you as a forex trader will buy USD so that you can sell it off later.'
As currency prices are constantly on the move, forex traders are inevitably subjected to a fast-paced environment which Mr Lai describes as 'a pressure cooker'. 'Even during lunch breaks, (traders) cover for each other; you bring lunch back and eat at your desk,' he says, adding that 'even when you go for toilet breaks, the markets can just move'.

Due to the high pressure that the job entails, traders should have certain characteristics.
'A good forex trader is highly adaptable, decisive and has the ability to think out of the box, especially in volatile situations,' says Angela Kuek, manager, banking and financial services of recruitment company Hudson. 'He has a steady mind, stays cool and is not easily distracted, veering off course from positioning strategies. He should have an eye for opportunities and precision.'
Mr Lai shares similar sentiments: 'To be successful in forex trading, or any trading for that matter, a person has to be very numbers-driven, able to take calculated risks; and be a very calm, collected person who doesn't get scared of losing money overnight.'

In addition, a trader should be up-to- date with current world issues which influence forex markets. 'He or she is constantly at the forefront of happenings and movements in the global financial markets,' says Ms Kuek.
Interestingly, these traits take precedence over academic qualifications. 'In the past, when you look for a trader, it's all track record. But these days, many traders have degrees, except for the European and American traders,' notes Mr Lai. 'Many brokerage houses (in Europe and the United States) don't require traders to have degrees; they need personality.'
However, he acknowledges that degrees are 'a given these days', especially in Asia.
The forex trader from the bank agrees that 'most banks would like to see at least a university degree', adding that when job interviews are conducted, the questions are 'secondary; the primary assessment will be based on the personality'.

Perks and downsides
The biggest lure of forex trading, it seems, are the monetary rewards.
'The starting pay of a trader is around $2,500, and that is just the basic pay. On top of that, you get a dealing allowance of around $500 and are entitled to profit sharing, which is normally about 5 per cent of the profit that you make above the budget given,' explains the forex trader.
He adds that a senior trader with about eight years of experience, on the other hand, can earn up to $200,000 a year, while star traders can easily reap more than $500,000.
However, the career life span of forex traders tends to be shorter than other banking positions, says Ms Kuek.
'The trading floor is a highly stressful environment, mostly for long periods at a stretch, causing higher burnout rates.'
She adds that traders also have to be prepared to work long hours which span the Asian, European, and sometimes part of the US time zones.

Where to next?
Ms Kuek explains that there are two career paths for forex traders: they can choose to become specialist traders - for example, dealing with G-10 (the Group of 10 industrial countries) currencies; or take on management responsibilities such as being heads of desks, who trade but also manage other traders and the entire portfolio.

The forex trader, however, believes that the career prospects look bright only for the 'next 5-10 years'.
'The long-term prospects are not good, given that, in the near future, the world is heading towards a few currencies only,' he explains. 'First, the euro. And in the Americas, the US dollar is a de facto single currency, while Asia is thinking about having one currency too. So the volatility has dropped considerably, making trading harder.'

He adds: 'A word of advice - investment banking is where the big money is.'

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There is a life cycle for stocks too

Published March 24, 2007

By TEH HOOI LING SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

HERE's a happy situation most investors would love to find themselves in. You discover a stock. It is only a tiny company, but the fundamentals are very good. It has put in place new capacity and you are confident the company will be able to make four cents a share this year - an increase of 60 per cent from the 2.5 cents it made last year.


In the market, the shares of the company are trading at 16 cents a share. That works out to be 6.4 times its historical earnings, and four times your expected earnings for this year. With 250 million shares outstanding, the company has a market capitalisation of $40 million.

Convinced of your analysis, you buy the stock. Fast forward to a year later. Your analysis proves spot on, and the company turns in earnings per share of four cents. Its strong earnings growth is reported in the newspapers, and more investors take notice of the stock and a few more people are convinced that the company can continue to grow. The expectation is that it will expand its bottom line by 40 per cent in the coming year, and another 30 per cent the following year.

So its share price is bid up to 34 cents - 8.5 times its last year's earnings, and six times its forecast earnings for this year.

Now its market capitalisation has risen to $85 million. With a more decent size in terms of its market cap, the stock begins to appear on the radar screen of analysts and institutional fund managers.

In the meantime, the company continues to execute on its strategy and is doing all the right things amid a conducive macro environment. It again delivers a strong set of earnings.
That convinces a few analysts who begin to issue research reports on the company. Professional fund managers also start to buy the stock on expectation of its 30 per cent earnings growth next year.

Given that the company is of a more substantial size, analysts and fund managers reckon it deserves a high price-earnings multiple. So its share price is bid up to 73 cents. That's 13 times its this year's earnings and 10 times its forecast earnings for next year.
By this time, the market cap of the company is in the region of $180 million. And if its prospects remain good, even bigger funds will be attracted to it and its PE multiple is likely to expand even further.

So if you are fortunate enough to spot such a company early on, don't make the mistake of selling out too early. In addition to the earnings growth, also look for the PE expansion - that is, as long as the prospects remain good.

From the charts of FerroChina, Advance SCT, Hongguo and FJ Benjamin, you can see that the market caps tend to climb pretty fast after certain thresholds have been hit.
Just like all living things, there is a life cycle for stocks as well. As a company grows, the market's perception of it will change over time and this will often affect valuations and the stock price.

Citigroup Global Markets' equity research team has this radar screening which aims to model both the fundamental 'valuation' component of a stock's returns and the behavioural or 'market perception' element.

A stock can be in one of four categories: contrarian, attractive, glamour and unattractive.
A stock is a contrarian buy when it has a sound business with good earnings prospects, but is inexpensive because it is overlooked by the investment community.

Then perhaps one or two quarters of good results later, investors became aware of a stock's potential and buy it. Price momentum improves and analysts start to follow the stock. Earnings revisions are positive and momentum improves more. That's when it enters the 'attractive' quadrant.

The strong performance of the stock's share price attracts even more investors - be it institutional or retail. And it becomes fashionable to own the stock. Here's how Citigroup describes it: 'Investor interest helps drive the stock price and valuation higher. The stock no longer looks inexpensive (it has got ahead of its fundamentals), yet it remains in favour and momentum remains strong. It now sits in the 'glamour' quadrant.' Arguably Raffles Education and Olam International could be said to be in this quadrant.

And if investors continue to bid up the shares, at some point, some investors will recognise that valuations are stretched. They will start selling and momentum will deteriorate. The stock falls into the 'unattractive' quadrant until fundamentals catch up, when it might again become 'contrarian'.

A stock can slip into the 'unattractive' quadrant if its fundamentals, or the industry it operates in, begin to deteriorate. Then the company will have to sort its operations out, or ride out the down cycle. During that time, investors will forget about the stock, and at some point, the stock - unless it falls into severe distress and goes bankrupt - will eventually slide into the 'contrarian' quadrant again.

This is obviously an idealised path, and at any time fundamentals or perception can change, says Citigroup. For example, anticipating future earnings, investors might buy a stock, and in so doing push the stock into the 'glamour' category. However, if the company delivers earnings, valuation will improve and the stock would move back into the 'attractive' quadrant.

Similarly, a stock in the 'contrarian' category might start missing its earnings and/or earnings growth estimates may fall. This would lead to justified valuations falling - and hence it may start looking expensive, that is, it would migrate into the 'unattractive' quadrant. There are a few drivers that affect the share price and its position in the four quadrants.

As mentioned, rising stock prices attracts attention and that creates momentum. All else being equal, it will propel a stock from the contrarian quadrant to glamour.

Also, large-cap stocks are more highly valued than small-cap stocks. This could be due to the liquidity premium accorded to larger stocks, since that will allow institutional funds to buy into them. So as the stock price rises, so too its market cap. And as a result, there will be an increase in the justifiable valuation of the stock. Thus, a glamour stock can move back to being an attractive stock now that its valuation is justifiable.

Meanwhile, the raising of growth estimates by the analysts community will lead to higher justified valuations for certain stocks. This could move a stock from unattractive into the attractive quadrant.

And finally, rising interest rates will translate into lower theoretical valuations, making most stocks unattractive based on their previous price levels.

This framework allows investors to appreciate the dynamics of a stock's market value relative to its fair value. As shown, one has to constantly review the numerous variables at play.
Using that framework, Citigroup has categorised Korea and Thailand as contrarian. Hong Kong and Australia are attractive. China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and the Philippines are in the glamour bracket. And finally, Taiwan is deemed unattractive.

For Singapore stocks, those in the contrarian quadrant include Singapore Petroleum, MobileOne and Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund. SingTel, Venture, StarHub and Jardine Cycle and Carriage are attractive. In the glamour quadrant are OCBC, Singapore Exchange, F&N and CapitaLand. And finally, Chartered, StatsChipPac and Parkway are in the unattractive quarter.

The writer is a CFA charterholder. She can be reached at hooiling@sph.com.sg

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Investment lessons from trekking

Investing is similar to moving in forested terrain; you can't expect your investments to move in a straight line with no fluctuations
By CHRISTOPHER TAN @ http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/money/story/0,4574,205986,00.html?

I LOVE moving in the mountains. It gives me a deep sense of serenity and peace. It also gives me a feeling of great satisfaction as I navigate through the tough terrain to reach my destination.

Not a straight path: If you want to journey into the "financial jungle', you should know that like walking in the mountains, there is no way you can reach your goal in a straight-line approach. You must be prepared for risks.

My most unforgettable journey through the mountains happened more than 10 years ago when I was a career army officer and training in Brunei's Temburong Jungle. I had to lead 150 men through the jungle on a mission. We first used a sortie of helicopters to land on a helipad 10km away from our destination at dawn. When you land in darkness and when the strong wind caused by the rotor is blowing down on you, you lose all your sense of direction. At that time, I depended on my compass and map and moved my men in the direction of our objective. As we moved through the jungle, we walked along the ridge lines and went up and down many hills. You need to know one thing about walking in the jungle: it is never a simple case of walking straight all the way to your destination. The terrain will ensure that you will 'meander' your way through.
Often, I became worried that I may be moving in the wrong direction, and with 150 men, tired and hungry, stretched over a distance behind me, it sometimes affected my decision-making ability. But one thing I have learnt through my experience in the mountains is that you must never depend on your emotions, whether it is fear or confidence. You can only depend on the compass and map to tell you where exactly you are. So finally, after many hours of walking, I managed to take the troops to our objective on time. It was truly an amazing experience for me. But why am I talking about the jungles and mountains when this is a financial page? This is because investing is very similar to moving in forested terrain. So what similarities and investment lessons can we draw from the mountain experience?


It is not a straight road to your objective
Just like my jungle mission, we all have objectives when we invest our monies. And like my mountain experience, it is not a straight road to the destination. You cannot expect your investments to move upwards in a straight line with no fluctuations (that is, no risks). There are simply no such investments in existence. If we want to achieve say 7 per cent per annum and can only accept 8 per cent volatility over a 10-year period, we must allow our investments to fluctuate between -1 per cent to 15 per cent so that we can have an average of 7 per cent over the 10 years. This is the financial market's way, as it is the mountain's way.


One of the biggest mistakes to make when walking through jungle in the mountains is to take a direct bearing towards the objective, go down the ravine, bash through thick vegetation, cross rivers to try and reach the destination. You avoid the meandering ridge lines and you think it is faster going straight. In the end, your 150 men and you will end up being too tired, risk being bitten by harmful creatures and getting injured. You will likely get lost. This is likened to trying to time the market, taking short cuts, thinking that you can get out of the market when it is at its highest and buying in when it is at its lowest. You want your investment to only go up in a straight line and are not prepared to ride the volatility. Unfortunately, like walking in the ravine, you may end up losing your way. You must remember you cannot go against the mountains. Likewise, you must allow the financial markets to take their course to give you the returns.

Do not be reined in by your fears or confidence
Just like walking in the mountains, you will at times be overly confident and at other times be fearful. I remember a separate occasion when I went into the jungle alone. Because I have been in that location many times before, I became overly confident and relied on my 'local knowledge' and 'gut feel'. I did not use my compass and map and as a result, got lost. As it was getting dark, I got fearful and went around nervously, trying to find my way out. The situation got worse and I ended up staying alone in the jungle for a night without water and food, and was harassed by wild boars.
During good times (like from 2003 to April 2006), you may feel confident about all your investment decisions. In times of market volatility (like the first 10 months in 2004 and during this period in 2006), you may also be confronted by your fears. Just like walking in the jungle, you can never really know what to expect. Your false confidence and unwarranted fears may cause you to make poor investment decisions. You should, instead, use and rely on your equipment: your compass and map.

Trust your compass and map
The only thing you can trust in the mountains is your compass and map. It is the only equipment that will tell you where you are. If you always keep track of your last location, you will know how to make adjustments when you are lost. If you make decisions in the jungle based solely on your gut feel and intuition when you are lost, you may never be able to find your bearings again. Similarly, in making investment decisions, make sure you use all data available, know the assumptions and do all the necessary forecast. Document all the decisions so that when a mistake is made, you know how to get back on track. It is not making investment mistakes but not knowing what mistakes you have made that will cause you to lose your monies in the long term.

Make adjustments where necessary
Like walking in the mountains, from time to time, you will be disoriented. What is most important is to retrace your steps and move to your last known position and start moving in the right direction again. In investments, we must monitor the performance closely. When our portfolio is not moving generally towards our set returns objective of say 7 per cent per annum, and when it is taking on more risk, say 8 per cent than we expect it to be, it is time to check what went wrong and make necessary adjustments. If you have been faithfully documenting all your decisions and assumptions, you would be able to move in the right direction once more.

Follow the right commander
When I was leading my 150 men, I was responsible for their safety, welfare, morale and the achieving of the objective as a team. If I am only concerned about reaching my objective at the expense of my men, they will never follow me again. I must also prove to them that I am a competent commander, able to be calm during adversity and having the technical ability to use the right equipment to navigate in the rough terrain. I must constantly communicate to them about our situation and motivate them. I must be prepared to admit my mistakes and tell them what remedial actions I am going to take so that they trust me. In that mission, I believe I displayed those qualities and won the respect of my men.

Similarly, as investment managers managing clients' monies, we must be responsible for the safety of our clients' monies. It is their hard-earned assets and their dreams for their future. We must not make decisions based on our own selfish financial interests at the expense of our clients. We had better be sure that we are competent before we lead our clients into the 'financial jungle'. When markets are seemingly doing well, we need to hold on to our clients tightly so that they won't be overly confident or greedy and, as a result, invest blindly. When markets are volatile, we need to be calm for our clients and hold them close so that they don't sell their investments out of panic. Throughout the entire investment lifespan of our clients, we need to maintain communication with our clients so that they know that we are in control. If we fail to be that 'commander' for our clients' investments, we may lose a client, but they may lose their dreams for their family and themselves. Don't take our responsibility and leadership lightly.

In May and June, the financial markets fell sharply due to fears that interest rates might be raised again. The fall wiped out all the returns that the markets have gained in 2006. Many were afraid as they did not know what to do. In this period of great difficulty, we did what every good military commander would do. We studied all the data available and knew that the markets have over-reacted and there was really nothing to be overly concerned with. We checked all our portfolios and knew that despite the fall and the volatility, the portfolios were still behaving according to our expectation and moving in the right direction, towards our clients' objective. We remained calm for our clients, stayed invested but made minor adjustments to these portfolios.

We communicated to our clients the truth behind the fall and assured them there is nothing to be too concerned about. We told them we are still very much in control of the situation and remained confident their portfolios will deliver the returns they need. As a result, none of our clients pulled out their funds and today, the portfolios have recovered.

If you want to journey into the 'financial jungle', you need to know that like walking in the mountains, there is no way you can reach your objective in a straight-line approach. You must be prepared for occasional fluctuations as this is the way of the 'jungle'. Without risks, there are no returns. As long as your investments are behaving as you expect them to and your investment manager is in complete control, there is nothing to fear. Go to the mountains sometimes, for there are many investment lessons to be learnt from Nature.

Christopher Tan is the chief executive officer of Providend, Singapore's sole fee-only independent private wealth management firm. He can be contacted at chris_tan@providend.com

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Profit of 50 pips for this simple yet effective trade setup.

The trade setup above is quite obvious. Go to http://www.babypips.com/forex-school/fibonacci.html to understand more about using Fibo retracement levels for trade entry and Fibo extension levels for profit taking.

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New trade for this week

From the diagram above, the pair made a almost 50% Fibo retracement before rallying up. In general, it is good to enter a trade when the pair is making a retracement while placing a stop limit at below 61.8% Fibo level.

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For trade week(May 01-05): A brief summary of Murrey Math Trading System

Quoted from some forex forums:

"Every activity in creation requires three fundamental elements.

Space, Matter and Time.

Where is the action? What is the action? and When is the action?

Every repeated activity creates a pattern or rhythm.

Seasons, celestial movement, tides, growth cycles, etc. (what goes up must come down).

Recording the repeated activity draws a picture of the rhythm.

The fundamental rhythms in creation are the same.

The math is the same, the picture is the same, the result is the same: predictable change.

By knowing the TIME of a cycle we can consistently anticipate the likely future direction of the rhythm by knowing where we are NOW in the cycle. Half moon to full moon etc.

The Murrey Math Trading System is based on the precise measurements of these universal cycles.

Murrey Math uses numbers and geometry (the pictures of math in action), to record, measure and visualize the buy and sell harmonic rhythms of the financial market place.

A Fundamental Understanding of Market “Investments.”

The purchases of stocks from the exchange are not really an investment in a company.

Capital infusions into the issuing company are limited to the first sale at the lowest price, less underwriting cost.

All additional profits from the sale of that stock goes into the pocket of someone other than the company.

Most likely you are not buying the companies shares, you are buying shares from someone who owns company shares.

Price earnings ratio’s are meaningless in today’s market. Reasonable ratio’s were pasted years ago on even the strongest top 100 companies.

The entire market is about speculating on the trading cycles.

Everything that pretends to be based on the true value of the stock is just market place noise and the psychology of the exchange.

The Role of Mutual Funds.

In l992 the government released its so called “Red Book,” a 560 page, “loop-hole” treasure chest, that set mutual funds free from investment restraint, and the government freefrom fiscal liability.

Ignoring the dismal history of its predecessor, the Investment Trust, Mutual funds could now soar.

The unprecedented “market highs” in the ninety’s can be directly attributable to the Mutual Fund Industry’s capacity to lure billions from the safety of insured accounts into the exposed world of stock market investments.

As proof of the absurd, there are now nine thousand mutual funds chasing four thousand stocks.

That’s too much “focused” money trying to squeeze into, too small a space.

It’s a field day for the Insiders.

These funds are capitalized by millions of uninformed, passive long term investors.

Many in the “trusting” masses don’t even realize that their “Retirement/Mutual Fund” is a stock market investment.

Nearly 43% of the population are in the market through 401(k’s)/IRA, mutual fund instruments with billions of new payroll contributions each month.

When you add the billions from bailed out S&L depositors spoiled by their guaranteed 15% returns, and the “cashed out” billions from forced early retirements there is little wonder the market is unjustifiably high with “built in” volatility for the foreseeable future.

Competitive forces require fund managers to take risks that were not even legal before 1992. Mutual fund’s are consistently outperformed by the “no-brainer” indexes. So much for “expertise.”

History proves that artificial highs don’t last forever.

Long Term Mutual Fund success is fiction.

However, there is One Group that are consistent winners, in Bull or Bear markets.

Up or Down, these folks win. Let’s meet them.

Creating the Cycle.

In order to understand how stock market cycles are created there is one thing we must know. A few legal insiders, trade in such large volume that they almost single handedly determine the direction of the market. They in effect own the goose. These insiders make massive amounts of money by constantly changing directions as soon as enough people follow their previous move! These traders are the pied piper’s of Wall Street. Their functional control enables these legal insiders to make millions from small percentage profits (from 2% to 10%), EVERYTIME they change directions. This constant flow of huge profits from modest percentages in BOTH directions enables the truth to be camouflaged through official explanations of the market’s Up’s and Down’s. The noise of the market place serves as a verbal smoke screen that hides the real-profit-taking activity.

Interest rates, inflation fears, international incidents, etc., mean nothing unless the Insider’s are ready to take their next profits.

Murrey Math provides a CLEAR picture that allow us to ignore all the unreliable sounds of the market place. Our single objective is to Watch what the legal insiders DO so that we can respond quickly when they change direction. We ignore what they Say! We Do what they Do!

A Closer Look At The Players And Their Relationship.

Insiders. Traders who have the power to effect the entire Market, day after day, year after year. A person who is a part of the initial offering or someone who has advanced knowledge of information that is going to significantly effect a specific stock is not who we mean as an Insider.

Long Term Investors. “Buy and hold,” The mantra of “the masses” taught to believe the only profitable direction is UP. This is the official trading rhetoric of the marketplace. It is the psychologically acceptable way to explain staying in a losing position or failure to take available profits.

The Dynamics of the Relationship.

“Buy and Hold.” This is what “The Insiders” tell the masses to do, it is not what they do! must have the majority of investors thinking long-term to make their lucrative strategy work. Long Term Investors serve two vital functions from “The Insiders” point of view. First, this basic, no-action-strategy, maintains the overall stability of the trading column. Second, Long Term Investors provide the money that the insiders take as profitsUps and Downs that take place on the top 10% of the stock column. The Insiders in both directions on the constant

This subtle orchestration must be managed very carefully. “Long Term Investors” who buy close to a downward reversal may get out when the price comes back to their entry level. Immediate losses are hard for most people to accept psychologically. These Insiders know that these sellers create a natural buying resistance which they must push through each time they come back up to their last reversal line. However, if stock prices go above the entry level before going below, the exact same losses are amazingly accepted as a “Long Term” investment strategy. “Long Term Investors” provide both the Profits and the Stability of the trading column. “The Insiders” thrive on the mental gymnastics that keep “Long Term Investors” locked in their one direction stupor.

Murrey Math discovers “A Family” who makes Money in Both Directions On Every Reversal!

We begin by personifying the Insiders as a Family who discovered a great secret. The family name is PROFIT. Each trading day will represent the life span of a family member. Everyday we WATCH what Mr. Profit does. True to their name “The Profits” make Money, ( Profits) when the market goes UP and they make Money, ( Profits) when the market goes DOWN. That’s the Family Secret . . . Profits in Both Directions! Profits on Every Reversal!

If you know the Right direction there are always profits in BOTH Directions. Which direction, is not the issue, the RIGHT direction is the only one that wins. “The Profits” can’t lose for a very simple reason, their actions determined the Direction! They move in one direction until enough buyers follow them UP or DOWN and then REVERSE, collect their PROFITS, and start another profit cycle in the opposite direction. Day after day, year after year, The Family secret has been undetected, carefully concealed by complex rhetoric and the noise of the market place. . . UNTIL . . .

T. H. Murrey discovered that words can’t hide what Math Reveals!

Mr. Murrey has used his knowledge of Universal Harmonic Rhythms Cycles to build a Computerized “Camera” that Watches, Tracks and even Anticipates “The Profits” every move! He’s got them on screen, boxed in by their own actions. Murrey Math does not affect “The Profits,” it enables you to be the first that follows them, to do what they do!

Murrey Math can be validated by “the Entire History” of the Market. It’s control group includes every investor. The consistency of the buy/sell psychology creates market rhythms that conform precisely with the mathematical laws of the Universe. EveryMurrey Math Line is a “wall of resistance” and therefore anticipates a change of direction. The Human Factors, and unpredictable decisions may move the market through “a specific” Murrey Math Line. If so, it will be observed, measured and resisted even more strongly by the next line.

The Ways of the Insiders.

Since “The Profits” do not have total control over the market, they must monitor the losses of the masses. All losses must be explainable and within acceptable limits. The masses must be kept in the game. This is accomplished several ways.

1.When too many sellers follow “the Insiders” down too quickly they may overrun an acceptable target. When this happens “The Profits” immediately “give back” some of their latest gains from selling Short by becoming significant Long buyers. They “rally” the market in order to shore up the psyche of the Long Term Investors.

2.Substantial Short Profits that wipe out months, even years, of “paper profits” must be rare, once a decade or so.

3.“The Family” is very adept at faking in one direction for part of the day and then swiftly changing directions. This action is designed to avoid detection and to reinforce the concept of random markets. It works, over and over. This is the “Michael Jordon” move.

4. New breaks, good and bad make the Insiders job much easier. News provides an official rational for movements. However, only the Insiders can decided if the news is important enough to move the market. If they don’t respond the news doesn’t matter. They can ignore big deals for days or make big deals out small ones. The news is used as vital part of the Insiders strategy, it does not control it. Remember, the only thing that matters is what they do.

5. Since Insiders constantly make money in both directions on every reversal they will always make sure there is constant movement on the top of the column.

Becoming a “Top-Gun,” Murrey Math Trader

Murrey Math’s “Two-Staged-Strategy.”

Stage One: You must be willing to accept Immediate, modest LOSSES when the Insiders reverse against any NEW position.

This is the most important point to learn because it is the most difficult. It’s all about psychological maturity. It’s about being able to view small LOSSES as an necessary part of a Winning Strategy. It is impossible to utilize Murrey Math if you won’t accept modest LOSSES as a fact of life. The Insiders determine the direction, not us. Sometimes they pull a “Michael Jordon,” they fake us out. Sometimes the Two Arena’s that aren’t predictable move against us.

These unexpected directions are not exceptions to the math cycles! They come from the microcosm, right down on the point of the movement. It’s an up close, jagged edge that can’t be seen in the Big-Picture cycle. However, if your money is on the line, where the jagged edge is being formed You PULL OUT immediately. We call Stage One, “Top-Gun” Trading.

“Top-Gun” Trading: To be a “Top-Gun” Pilot you must be able to PULL OUT of a flight pattern the instant you are in danger. REACTION TIME is the characteristic that determines success or failure. You must be able to respond automatically and instantaneously. “Top-Gun” pilots are not macho! Wisdom not recklessness WINS the War. If the enemy fools a “Top-Gun” Pilot, their Sole Objective is to ESCAPE; live to fight another day. “Top-Gun” Training schools program pilots for a proper UNEMOTIONAL, automatic response to trouble.. The decision to “Pull Out” MUST BE put on “Automatic Pilot.”

All you have to do is place a sell/stop or a buy/stop immediately behind your exposed position. These stops must be “engaged” EVERYTIME you take a new position! (If the market jumps over your stop you will be taken out at the next opportunity.)

Stage One Summarized: PULL OUT When you have a NEW position and the market moves against you! Small losses powerfully protect the profits of Stage Two.

Now that you know how to minimize inevitable losses we are ready to . . .

Stage Two: Follow the Insiders as they Make Money in Both Directions, Every timeReverses. the Market

The Law of Entry: Never enter a stock position without knowing how far Mr. Profit has walked since he last changed direction!

The Profit’s USUALLY reverse after going up THREE blocks! SOMETIMES they will get a burst of energy and go up as much as SEVEN blocks before changing directions. On RARE“New” Eight Block section of Wall St. (more about this later). occasions they will go beyond eight blocks into a

Remember, we view the microcosm of Wall St. as EIGHT blocks long. The First two blocks, (1/8 and 2/8, picture three) are on the BOTTOM of the trading range. The Last two blocks, ( 7/8 and 8/8) are at the TOP of the trading range.

Enter/Exit Rule 1#: NEVER enter a position if Mr. Profit has moved Three or More Blocks in either direction! Entering in the middle of the range (3# through 6#) is avoided if possible. (When the market is locked in this range you must be willing to accept smaller profits).

The stock you choose SHOULD BE On the BOTTOM or On the TOP of the Trading frame! If the stock is on the BOTTOM you go LONG with a Short, Sell/Stop order. If the stock is on the TOP you go Short with a Long, Buy/Stop order.

Enter/Exit Rule 2#: When your stock moves Three Blocks (3/8ths), you SELL half your position! (We anticipate based on known history!) This is SURE profit! Your objective is to MAKE MONEY Every time you take a position! Remember, we are observing, measuring and anticipating Mr. Profit!

Enter/Exit Rule 3#: If Mr. Profit goes more than the normal Three Blocks you follow him with the remaining Half of your money. When Mr. Profit PULLS OUT, we PULL OUT!

To Summarize: We Follow for Three Blocks then ANTICIPATE by Selling Half our position for Sure Profits! We reset or continue to FOLLOW with our balance to MAXIMIZENO RISK of missing the move! We reset or sale/buy stop on Mr. Profit’s current move with right behind our new position.

Reminder: Murrey Math Traders have accept the philosophy of the legal Insiders. We constantly make money on the Up’s and Down’s of the market place over a Long Period of Time. We are “the true” Long-Term Traders.

“Irrefutable Laws”: The basis of Murrey Math

The Law of Mathematics: We live in a mathematical universal absolutely controlled by mathematical law. All of the grand cycles, eclipses, stellar movements, seasons, growth/birth cycles, music etc., submit themselves to the mathematical law of cycles. Murrey Math precisely applies these immutable laws to reveal the harmonic rhythm cycles inherent in all market buying/selling activities. The result is a Visual Representation of market action.

The Law of Harmonic Rhythms: All Repeated Actions produce MOVEMENTS that create a Harmonic Rhythm Cycle or Reoccurring Pattern. The four seasons and their specific weather patterns create the basic rhythms of life. From the macrocosm to the microcosm, rhythms and patterns are everywhere. Everything that exist is a part of a pattern, components that dance to a fundamental harmonic rhythm.

The Law of Observation: By Consistent Observation these harmonic rhythms cycles or reoccurring patterns can be MEASURED and PLOTTED, (visually illustrated), with Dependable Mathematical Exactness. Aside from modest variations (Indian summers and late winters), these rhythms or patterns are very precise, with no exceptions.

The Law of Predictability: Once the Movements that create the Harmonic Rhythms or Patterns are mathematically Measured and Plotted, Continual Observation, allows SUCCESSFUL PREDICTION of their Future Direction.

Two arena’s that cbe predicted.

1. Back-room decisions.

A. Security and Exchange Commission C. Boardrooms of Trading Companies.

B. Pre-opening strategies. D. Federal Reserve Action

2. Impacting news before it happens.

These Two arena’s require every Murrey Math trader to Learn to accept Immediate, modest LOSSES when reverses go against you. (See: Top-Gun-Trading). Once these non-predictable events are activated, they immediately become predictable.

Learning to See the Market!

The Murrey Math System captures, measures and visualizes the movements of stocks. The picture of the movements enables those trained to SEE to consistently predict the probable future direction. Once your eyes have been trained to accurately SEE the past, you can SEE the future. Murray Math is DEAF to what the market says! We WATCH what the market does!GO where the market is going! We

You learn to SEE Murrey Math ONE Picture at a time!

(Use the memory keys to lock in the pictures quickly)

Murray Math is based on the mathematics of Music, (eight notes to an octave). The “Square in time,” is divided into EIGHT sections. 1/8, 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8 and 8/8."
If you are interested to know more, I believe you can do some search online to find out more.

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New trade using the new system

I have personally played around with this marvellous system which is my 'night vision goggles' to look for 'bobby traps' at night in forex market. The picture shows that the current trade is worth 23 pips if closed. However, I have chosed to secure 10 pips of profits and let the rest run. This system has the ability to profit from both trending and ranging markets.

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