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USD/CHF pending breakout

A breakout is pending since the price has been making lower highs and higher lows as seen in the picture above. This event would form a "triangle" which is one of the trend continuation patterns. This pattern implied that the next move would be in the same direction as the trend that preceded this pattern. In this case, there was a uptrend before the formation of this pattern and the triange acts as a pause in the trend before the trend goes up again. It is considered one of the good entry strategies adopted by traders in their trading systems.

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My new bets at BetOnMarkets

After my two wins at BetOnMarkets which I have posted previously, I have again placed another two bets as shown above. I have to say that we need to do some homework reading the chart patterns on a daily chart before we place any bets to avoid losing money. I would not say my bets are 100% risk-free, but the odds are in my favour. I would rather lose money on these bets than to give it to scammers who claimed that they can make money for us.

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Results of using Hedging in FX

I have done a simulation using hedging. The table above shows the difference that hedging makes in FX trading. If I have not purchased EUR/USD to hedge against USD/CHF, my loss would be -$21.6 instead of -$3.51.

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My current chart analysis of the USD/CHF

The picture briefly describes my reading of the previous price since Jan 29. My prediction is that the pair would go up in the days ahead. Let's see whether I can be a good fortune-teller. Anyway, I am prepared to hedge against any losing position using the strategy described in my previous posting.

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Hedging:How to hedge a losing position rather than closing it

After two straight losses, the topic of hedging would be an appropriate topic at this point. The strategy for hedging goes like this:

If we buy USD/CHF and the trade moves against us, we can buy EUR/USD trade that allows us to profit from the short term EUR move (offsetting losses on the USD). When the direction reverses, we close the EUR/USD trade for a profit and the USD/CHF trade will move back to break even or into profit.

This strategy is common to hedge funds companies and banks.

In addition, some traders would use cover sell or cover buy as another hedging move. For example, traders would trade the same currency pair instead of another currency pair. In other words, if they bought USD/CHF previously and the trade moved against them, they would sell USD/CHF as another trade instead of buy EUR/USD trade to cover losses.

Previously I have only opened one trade at a time and results had shown that one trade is not enough and hedging is needed in choppy situations. Since our risk capital is small, the maximum open trades allowed would be only 2 instead of 3 or 4. Some traders with sufficient capital open 3 or 4 trades at a time.

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Off the topic: The AdSense Formula

Some may find this topic interesting...I also don't know how much I can get with Adsense :D

Quoted from Adsense Formula:

The AdSense Formula
There's no secret to making money with AdSense

I often get asked what the secret is to making money with Google's AdSense program. This often comes from people who are dreaming of setting up websites chock full of high-paying keywords for particular niche subjects and then sitting back and watching the money roll in. "What's the magic formula?" they ask me. If they're non-technical, I point them straight to my book, Make Easy Money with Google, and assure them that they'll learn everything they need from it. They may think it's hard, but it's not.

But what about the technical people? By this I mean the people who've already set up a blog or website, who have registered domain names, who are comfortable with basic Internet terminology and concepts. What is the "AdSense formula"?

The only AdSense formula that you need to know is this:

earnings = number of clicks * average price per click

This is what I call the Fundamental AdSense Formula because you can derive almost every AdSense "secret" directly or indirectly from this formula. Do you want to earn more with AdSense? You have two ways of doing it:

1. Increase the number of clicks, and/or

2. Increase the average price per click

Your earnings will only go up if you do one or the other, and ideally both. It's an obvious formula, yes, but it's amazing how many people lose sight of it in their quest for increased AdSense earnings.

Increasing the Number of AdSense Clicks

Increasing the number of times the ads on your site or blog are clicked is the most obvious strategy. There are two general strategies you can follow:

1. Increase the traffic to the site, and/or

2. Adjust the ads to make them more "clickable"

Getting traffic is hard and takes time, so don't look at it as a quick fix. The best way to get traffic is to provide useful, unique content and to rank highly in search engine rankings for keywords related to that content. In other words, use standard search engine optimization techniques. DO NOT "buy" traffic or use "link farms" or other dubious techniques. Other tips for getting traffic:

1. Publish articles, even free ones, with links back to your site.

2. Include a link to your site in the signature at the bottom of your emails or in any forum postings you make (if the forum allows it).

3. Participate in forums/groups related to the content of your site or blog. The key is to participate, not lurk, and don't just post messages promoting your site.

4. Add comments (relevant ones only, please) to other blogs, you can usually link back to yours. (This won't help your search engine rankings, but it may allow others who are reading those comments to find your own site.)

5. Syndicate your content (trivial if you have a blog) and make sure that the content is registered with syndication aggregators.

6. List your site in relevant directories.

Adjusting the ads is something you can do almost immediately:

1. Position the ads on the page in order to make them more noticeable. Google even publishes a helpful heat map (see https://www.google.com/support/adsense/bin/static.py?page=tips.html ) for AdSense publishers.

2. Choose the best AdSense ad format that works for your site.

3. Change the ad colors either to make the ads blend in with your site or to make them stand out. Again, it varies depending on the site.

Whatever you do, DO NOT ENTICE VISITORS TO CLICK THE ADS. Google is very strict about this, see the AdSense program policies (found at https://www.google.com/adsense/policies ) for the details.

Increasing the Average AdSense Price Per Click

Increasing the average price per click you receive from AdSense is the other strategy for increasing your overall AdSense earnings. You can do this by:

1. Carefully targeting your content, and/or

2. Filtering out and avoiding low-paying ads

Content targeting isn't just about creating relevant, unique content. It's also making sure that that content is written to target the higher-paying keywords associated with a given topic. This means:

1. Figuring out which keyword variations for that topic pay more. Often the more specialized variations and phrases pay more than the "generic" terms.

2. Ensuring that the keyword density of the content favors the higher-paying keyword variations. See http://www.MakeEasyMoneyWithGoogle.com/vioxx-lawsuit.html for an example of well-targeted ads due to appropriate keyword density.

And to reduce the occurrence of lower-paying ads, consider these two strategies:

1. Use AdSense's competitive filter mechanism to screen out the ads that you don't want.

2. Show fewer ads on a page. The fewer ads you show, the more the higher-paying ads get displayed and clicked.

Many publishers also report that their earnings increase if they remove ads completely from pages with few or no clicks. Again, the "less is more" strategy favors the higher-paying ads.

There's No Magic

As you can see, there's no magic involved to increasing your AdSense earnings. The Fundamental AdSense Formula is easy to understand, but that doesn't mean it's easy to apply the formula. It takes time and effort to do it, just like most things.

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Trade #4: Loss of 18 pips

Sad to say, despite my previous technical analysis of the chart patterns that prompted me to place a sell order, the price went 180 degrees. As you can see in the picture, I have been whipsawed. It is better for me to take a break to monitor the choppy situation and resume trading when the situation permits. Technical analysis can only help us ascertain the direction of the future price based on the current chart patterns and formations that we make out from previous prices. We can never know how the future price would turn out since we are not God.


The only consolation in this trade is that I have the discipline to stick to the same stop-limit level. Had I pulled back the level further, I would have incurred higher losses.

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Trade #3: Loss of 18 pips

Unfortunately, there is a trend change for USD/CHF which resulted in the loss of 18 pips. For USD/CHF, they have made lower highs and lower lows while EUR/USD have made higher highs and higher lows. A sell order of 20,000 units instead of buy order is placed for USD/CHF. A brief technical analysis for both pairs is explained on the picture above.

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New Trade

The picture shows that the new trade is entered at the Fibo 50% indicated by the green dotted line. Since the price has pulled back to Fibo 50% level previously, it would probably pull back to the same level on the next correction. Let's see how many pips we can get from this trade. At the this point, there is no pip in profit. Double bottom indicates that there could be an uptrend reversal signal and it acts as a support line for the price.

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Calendar

The picture shows that the price has taken a correction of slightly below Fib 50% level after reaching the week high of 1.3060. Fortunately, I have placed my stop-limit level(the red spot) between 38.2% and 50% just in case there is a sudden reversal of trend. My inital prediction was that the price would pull back to 38.2% before rallying up.

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Update #2 of current trade

The picture above is a brief commentary of the bullish process. Good news is that EUR/USD fails to maintain the support level of 1.21. Profit of 30 pips is secured and we can do now is to let profits run. I am hoping that the pair can reach my target of 1.3093 which is a profit of 100 pips.

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Euro holds above $1.21 after US jobs data

Quoted from the Financial Times

"The euro held just above $1.21, having been hit on Friday when the latest employment data in the US suggested further monetary tightening which would support the dollar.

News of 211,000 new jobs in the US in March strengthened expectations the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates above 5 per cent from their current 4.75 per cent level. The dollar gained around 1 per cent on the euro on Friday.

The euro prior to the jobs data had climbed to a seven month high above $1.23 as repeated strong eurozone economic data bolstered expectations of tightening by the European Central Bank. It slipped 1 cent against the dollar on Thursday however when Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, said the market’s expectation of a quarter-point rate rise in May did not match the central bank’s thinking.

“We maintain that sentiment looks to recover above $1.2200 to retest towards key resistance at $1.2325/33 (January 2006 and recent April high) this week,” Commerzbank Corporates and Markets analyst Andy Hart said.

The euro held against the dollar at $1.2114 and climbed 0.6 per cent against the yen to Y143.79.
The dollar gained 0.3 per cent against the Japanese currency to Y118.41 but dropped 0.3 per cent on sterling to $1.7461. The pound rose 0.3 per cent to £0.6936 on the single currency."

The Euro needs to drop below the psychologically important level of $1.21 in order for the USD/CHF to have more space to grow. If not, we would not be able to hit the target of at least 40 pips in profits in return for a risk of 20 pips according to the risk/reward ratio of 1:2.

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Update of the current trade

From the picture above, the price has rallied up to the price of 1.3010. The bulk of the increase in price would come from the overlap of the US market hours and London market hours which is between GMT 1pm and 5pm. Equivalent Singapore time would be between 9pm to 1am. Hope that there would not be a trend reversal during this 'heavenly' period :). There is a profit of 18 pips at the point of typing.

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For Trade Week (10 Apr - 14 Apr)

How come the pair is dropping when the trend is bullish? Right now, they are having a correction or retracement. To technical analysts, they are having a Fibonacci retracement. This event is perfectly normal and it applies to all financial markets. I have placed a buy order of 20,000 units at 1.2993 which is a few pips above the 200-EMA curve average price of 1.2989. 200-EMA curve determines, to a large extent, the trend is bullish or bearish. If the price is above the 200-EMA average, the trend is considered bullish. If the price falls below 200-EMA average, the trend is bearish. Should the price close at least 10 pips below the 200-EMA curve, there could be a trend reversal. Let's see how many pips we can make from this trade.

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