Investing is similar to moving in forested terrain; you can't expect your investments to move in a straight line with no fluctuations
By CHRISTOPHER TAN @ http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/money/story/0,4574,205986,00.html?
By CHRISTOPHER TAN @ http://business-times.asiaone.com/sub/money/story/0,4574,205986,00.html?
I LOVE moving in the mountains. It gives me a deep sense of serenity and peace. It also gives me a feeling of great satisfaction as I navigate through the tough terrain to reach my destination.
Not a straight path: If you want to journey into the "financial jungle', you should know that like walking in the mountains, there is no way you can reach your goal in a straight-line approach. You must be prepared for risks.
My most unforgettable journey through the mountains happened more than 10 years ago when I was a career army officer and training in Brunei's Temburong Jungle. I had to lead 150 men through the jungle on a mission. We first used a sortie of helicopters to land on a helipad 10km away from our destination at dawn. When you land in darkness and when the strong wind caused by the rotor is blowing down on you, you lose all your sense of direction. At that time, I depended on my compass and map and moved my men in the direction of our objective. As we moved through the jungle, we walked along the ridge lines and went up and down many hills. You need to know one thing about walking in the jungle: it is never a simple case of walking straight all the way to your destination. The terrain will ensure that you will 'meander' your way through.
Often, I became worried that I may be moving in the wrong direction, and with 150 men, tired and hungry, stretched over a distance behind me, it sometimes affected my decision-making ability. But one thing I have learnt through my experience in the mountains is that you must never depend on your emotions, whether it is fear or confidence. You can only depend on the compass and map to tell you where exactly you are. So finally, after many hours of walking, I managed to take the troops to our objective on time. It was truly an amazing experience for me. But why am I talking about the jungles and mountains when this is a financial page? This is because investing is very similar to moving in forested terrain. So what similarities and investment lessons can we draw from the mountain experience?
It is not a straight road to your objective
Just like my jungle mission, we all have objectives when we invest our monies. And like my mountain experience, it is not a straight road to the destination. You cannot expect your investments to move upwards in a straight line with no fluctuations (that is, no risks). There are simply no such investments in existence. If we want to achieve say 7 per cent per annum and can only accept 8 per cent volatility over a 10-year period, we must allow our investments to fluctuate between -1 per cent to 15 per cent so that we can have an average of 7 per cent over the 10 years. This is the financial market's way, as it is the mountain's way.
One of the biggest mistakes to make when walking through jungle in the mountains is to take a direct bearing towards the objective, go down the ravine, bash through thick vegetation, cross rivers to try and reach the destination. You avoid the meandering ridge lines and you think it is faster going straight. In the end, your 150 men and you will end up being too tired, risk being bitten by harmful creatures and getting injured. You will likely get lost. This is likened to trying to time the market, taking short cuts, thinking that you can get out of the market when it is at its highest and buying in when it is at its lowest. You want your investment to only go up in a straight line and are not prepared to ride the volatility. Unfortunately, like walking in the ravine, you may end up losing your way. You must remember you cannot go against the mountains. Likewise, you must allow the financial markets to take their course to give you the returns.
Do not be reined in by your fears or confidence
Just like walking in the mountains, you will at times be overly confident and at other times be fearful. I remember a separate occasion when I went into the jungle alone. Because I have been in that location many times before, I became overly confident and relied on my 'local knowledge' and 'gut feel'. I did not use my compass and map and as a result, got lost. As it was getting dark, I got fearful and went around nervously, trying to find my way out. The situation got worse and I ended up staying alone in the jungle for a night without water and food, and was harassed by wild boars.
Just like walking in the mountains, you will at times be overly confident and at other times be fearful. I remember a separate occasion when I went into the jungle alone. Because I have been in that location many times before, I became overly confident and relied on my 'local knowledge' and 'gut feel'. I did not use my compass and map and as a result, got lost. As it was getting dark, I got fearful and went around nervously, trying to find my way out. The situation got worse and I ended up staying alone in the jungle for a night without water and food, and was harassed by wild boars.
During good times (like from 2003 to April 2006), you may feel confident about all your investment decisions. In times of market volatility (like the first 10 months in 2004 and during this period in 2006), you may also be confronted by your fears. Just like walking in the jungle, you can never really know what to expect. Your false confidence and unwarranted fears may cause you to make poor investment decisions. You should, instead, use and rely on your equipment: your compass and map.
Trust your compass and map
The only thing you can trust in the mountains is your compass and map. It is the only equipment that will tell you where you are. If you always keep track of your last location, you will know how to make adjustments when you are lost. If you make decisions in the jungle based solely on your gut feel and intuition when you are lost, you may never be able to find your bearings again. Similarly, in making investment decisions, make sure you use all data available, know the assumptions and do all the necessary forecast. Document all the decisions so that when a mistake is made, you know how to get back on track. It is not making investment mistakes but not knowing what mistakes you have made that will cause you to lose your monies in the long term.
The only thing you can trust in the mountains is your compass and map. It is the only equipment that will tell you where you are. If you always keep track of your last location, you will know how to make adjustments when you are lost. If you make decisions in the jungle based solely on your gut feel and intuition when you are lost, you may never be able to find your bearings again. Similarly, in making investment decisions, make sure you use all data available, know the assumptions and do all the necessary forecast. Document all the decisions so that when a mistake is made, you know how to get back on track. It is not making investment mistakes but not knowing what mistakes you have made that will cause you to lose your monies in the long term.
Make adjustments where necessary
Like walking in the mountains, from time to time, you will be disoriented. What is most important is to retrace your steps and move to your last known position and start moving in the right direction again. In investments, we must monitor the performance closely. When our portfolio is not moving generally towards our set returns objective of say 7 per cent per annum, and when it is taking on more risk, say 8 per cent than we expect it to be, it is time to check what went wrong and make necessary adjustments. If you have been faithfully documenting all your decisions and assumptions, you would be able to move in the right direction once more.
Follow the right commander
When I was leading my 150 men, I was responsible for their safety, welfare, morale and the achieving of the objective as a team. If I am only concerned about reaching my objective at the expense of my men, they will never follow me again. I must also prove to them that I am a competent commander, able to be calm during adversity and having the technical ability to use the right equipment to navigate in the rough terrain. I must constantly communicate to them about our situation and motivate them. I must be prepared to admit my mistakes and tell them what remedial actions I am going to take so that they trust me. In that mission, I believe I displayed those qualities and won the respect of my men.
Similarly, as investment managers managing clients' monies, we must be responsible for the safety of our clients' monies. It is their hard-earned assets and their dreams for their future. We must not make decisions based on our own selfish financial interests at the expense of our clients. We had better be sure that we are competent before we lead our clients into the 'financial jungle'. When markets are seemingly doing well, we need to hold on to our clients tightly so that they won't be overly confident or greedy and, as a result, invest blindly. When markets are volatile, we need to be calm for our clients and hold them close so that they don't sell their investments out of panic. Throughout the entire investment lifespan of our clients, we need to maintain communication with our clients so that they know that we are in control. If we fail to be that 'commander' for our clients' investments, we may lose a client, but they may lose their dreams for their family and themselves. Don't take our responsibility and leadership lightly.
In May and June, the financial markets fell sharply due to fears that interest rates might be raised again. The fall wiped out all the returns that the markets have gained in 2006. Many were afraid as they did not know what to do. In this period of great difficulty, we did what every good military commander would do. We studied all the data available and knew that the markets have over-reacted and there was really nothing to be overly concerned with. We checked all our portfolios and knew that despite the fall and the volatility, the portfolios were still behaving according to our expectation and moving in the right direction, towards our clients' objective. We remained calm for our clients, stayed invested but made minor adjustments to these portfolios.
We communicated to our clients the truth behind the fall and assured them there is nothing to be too concerned about. We told them we are still very much in control of the situation and remained confident their portfolios will deliver the returns they need. As a result, none of our clients pulled out their funds and today, the portfolios have recovered.
If you want to journey into the 'financial jungle', you need to know that like walking in the mountains, there is no way you can reach your objective in a straight-line approach. You must be prepared for occasional fluctuations as this is the way of the 'jungle'. Without risks, there are no returns. As long as your investments are behaving as you expect them to and your investment manager is in complete control, there is nothing to fear. Go to the mountains sometimes, for there are many investment lessons to be learnt from Nature.
Christopher Tan is the chief executive officer of Providend, Singapore's sole fee-only independent private wealth management firm. He can be contacted at chris_tan@providend.com
Saturday, August 26, 2006
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